Vog Model

The model output animation and accompanying forecast table is generated using the HYSPLIT numerical dispersion model. The model uses estimates of volcano emissions along with forecast winds to predict the concentrations of sulfur dioxide gas (SO2) and sulfate aerosol particles (SO4) downwind of the ongoing Kilauea eruption. This is a research effort that is in progress. Disclaimer.


What are the new lines on the forecast graphics?  The new graphics now include contours of the topography (lines that connect areas of equal elevation) to display important features of the terrain.

 

Island of Hawaii SO2

Island of Hawaii Sulfate Aerosols

Hawaiian Islands SO2

Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosols

 

For an explanation of the SO2 color scale, click here.

For further information on the Health effects of Vog, click here.

The location of the sites in the table below are shown on the map linked here.

Table of model predicted values of SO2 (PPM)

DAYHSTHilo Mt.
View
Jaggar
Museum
HVNP
Visitor
Center
Pahala Puna Kailua-Kona Honolulu Kihei Ocean
View
Lihue
Tue, Sep 26, 2017 1300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tue, Sep 26, 2017 1600 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Tue, Sep 26, 2017 1900 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tue, Sep 26, 2017 2200 0.00 0.00 0.52 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 0100 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 0400 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 0700 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 1000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.25 0.00
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 1300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.18 0.00
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 1600 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.15 0.00
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 1900 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thu, Sep 28, 2017 0100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Thu, Sep 28, 2017 0400 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Thu, Sep 28, 2017 0700 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thu, Sep 28, 2017 1000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.21 0.00
Thu, Sep 28, 2017 1200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table of model predicted values for Sulfate Aerosols micrograms per meter cubed (µg/m³)

DAYHSTHilo Mt.
View
Jaggar
Museum
HVNP
Visitor
Center
Pahala Puna Kailua-Kona Honolulu Kihei Ocean
View
Lihue
Tue, Sep 26, 2017 1300 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tue, Sep 26, 2017 1600 0 0 0 0 3 0 3 0 0 1 0
Tue, Sep 26, 2017 1900 0 0 0 0 14 0 0 0 0 0 0
Tue, Sep 26, 2017 2200 0 0 98 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 0100 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 3 0
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 0400 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 0700 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 1000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 49 0
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 1300 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 0
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 1600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 1900 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wed, Sep 27, 2017 2200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Thu, Sep 28, 2017 0100 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 2 0
Thu, Sep 28, 2017 0400 0 0 0 0 1 0 6 0 0 3 0
Thu, Sep 28, 2017 0700 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0
Thu, Sep 28, 2017 1000 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 43 0
Thu, Sep 28, 2017 1200 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0