Vog Model

The model output animation and accompanying forecast table is generated using the HYSPLIT numerical dispersion model. The model uses estimates of volcano emissions along with forecast winds to predict the concentrations of sulfur dioxide gas (SO2) and sulfate aerosol particles (SO4) downwind of the ongoing Kilauea eruption. This is a research effort that is in progress. Disclaimer.

As of 1 January 2014, a major change was made at Hawaii Volcano Observatory (HVO) in the way Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) emissions from the Halema'uma'u vent are reported. The resultant change in emissions values represents a substantial increase in emissions being reported. This does not mean that volcanic emissions have gone up overnight. This change results from long-term observations that suggest that previous estimates were under-reporting emissions. The change in emissions impacts the Vog Model which utilizes these emissions estimates in order to produce forecasts. Our goal is to bring the model into agreement with sulfur dioxide and sulafte observations throughout the Hawaiian Islands while utilizing the updated emissions estimates from HVO. For a more detailed discussion of these changes click Here.


 

Island of Hawaii SO2

Island of Hawaii Sulfate Aerosols

Hawaiian Islands SO2

Hawaiian Islands Sulfate Aerosols

 

For an explanation of the SO2 color scale, click here.

For further information on the Health effects of Vog, click here.

The location of the sites in the table below are shown on the map linked here.

Table of model predicted values of SO2 (PPM)

DAYHSTHilo Mt.
View
Jaggar
Museum
HVNP
Visitor
Center
Pahala Puna Kailua-Kona Honolulu Kihei Ocean
View
Lihue
Wed, Jul 26, 2017 1600 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wed, Jul 26, 2017 1900 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Wed, Jul 26, 2017 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 0100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 0400 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 0700 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 1000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 1300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 1600 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 1900 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 0100 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 0400 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 0700 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 1000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 1300 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 1600 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.00
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 1900 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.00
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 2200 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sat, Jul 29, 2017 0000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00

Table of model predicted values for Sulfate Aerosols micrograms per meter cubed (µg/m³)

DAYHSTHilo Mt.
View
Jaggar
Museum
HVNP
Visitor
Center
Pahala Puna Kailua-Kona Honolulu Kihei Ocean
View
Lihue
Wed, Jul 26, 2017 1600 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0
Wed, Jul 26, 2017 1900 0 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 0 0 0
Wed, Jul 26, 2017 2200 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 0 0 1 0
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 0100 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 0400 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 7 0
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 0700 0 0 0 0 93 0 0 0 0 0 0
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 1000 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 6 0
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 1300 0 0 0 0 53 0 0 0 0 1 0
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 1600 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 1900 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0
Thu, Jul 27, 2017 2200 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 2 0
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 0100 0 0 0 0 18 0 1 0 0 0 0
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 0400 0 0 0 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 0700 0 0 0 0 469 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 1000 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 1 0
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 1300 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 1600 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 0
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 1900 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 0
Fri, Jul 28, 2017 2200 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sat, Jul 29, 2017 0000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0