275 
 WTPZ25 KNHC 192035
 TCMEP5
 HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
 2100 UTC MON OCT 19 2009
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
 FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO
 SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE
 WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
 AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
  
 ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR TUESDAY FOR
 THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA OR WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 111.7W AT 19/2100Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT   6 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  976 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
 64 KT....... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
 50 KT....... 90NE  35SE  60SW  80NW.
 34 KT.......120NE  75SE  95SW 150NW.
 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 360SW 360NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 111.7W AT 19/2100Z
 AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 111.5W
  
 FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.2N 111.8W
 MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
 50 KT... 80NE  35SE  60SW  75NW.
 34 KT...110NE  75SE  90SW 140NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.4N 111.1W
 MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
 50 KT... 60NE  30SE  40SW  50NW.
 34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.9N 109.9W
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  15NW.
 34 KT... 75NE  85SE  75SW  75NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 23.5N 108.2W
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 50 KT... 15NE  30SE  15SW   0NW.
 34 KT... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 25.5N 106.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
 MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 111.7W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN
  
  
 

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