608 
 WTPZ25 KNHC 191432
 TCMEP5
 HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
 1500 UTC MON OCT 19 2009
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
 FROM SANTA FE SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST AND FROM SAN EVARISTO
 SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE
 WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
 AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
  
 INTERESTS IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
 THIS HURRICANE.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.6W AT 19/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   8 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  958 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
 64 KT....... 35NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 34 KT.......120NE 130SE  90SW 120NW.
 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 300SW 360NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 111.6W AT 19/1500Z
 AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 111.3W
  
 FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.6N 112.2W
 MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 34 KT...120NE 130SE  90SW 110NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.7N 111.9W
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 50 KT... 55NE  55SE  50SW  50NW.
 34 KT...110NE 130SE  90SW 100NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.1N 111.0W
 MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
 50 KT... 55NE  55SE  50SW  50NW.
 34 KT...110NE 130SE  90SW  90NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 22.8N 109.6W
 MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 50 KT... 45NE  50SE  45SW  40NW.
 34 KT...100NE 120SE  90SW  80NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 25.5N 106.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 111.6W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BRENNAN
  
  
 

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