055 
 WTPZ25 KNHC 180838
 TCMEP5
 HURRICANE RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
 0900 UTC SUN OCT 18 2009
  
 INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF
 MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
 HURRICANE.
  
 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.2W AT 18/0900Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  906 MB
 EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
 64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 50 KT....... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 150SW 200NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.2W AT 18/0900Z
 AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 106.6W
  
 FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.9N 109.0W
 MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.0N 110.7W
 MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 18.0N 111.7W
 MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
 64 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...160NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.1N 112.0W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 21.5N 111.0W
 MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 24.5N 109.0W
 MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 28.0N 104.0W...DISSIPATING INLAND
 MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 107.2W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
  
 

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