344 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 180236
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
 800 PM PDT SAT OCT 17 2009
  
 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF HURRICANE RICK CAN BE EXPRESSED IN ONE
 WORD...SPECTACULAR. THE EYE IS QUITE DISTINCT AND IS SURROUNDED BY
 VERY DEEP CONVECTION. ON THE LAST AVAILABLE VISIBLE IMAGES ONE
 COULD SEE THE SUNLIGHT REFLECTING OFF THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
 EYEWALL AND THE STADIUM EFFECT THAT IS TYPICAL OF INTENSE
 HURRICANES. MORE IMPORTANTLY...SUBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE 7.0 AND 7.5
 ON THE DVORAK SCALE FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...AND THE
 OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS HAVE REACHED 7.7 AND A 3-HOUR AVERAGE OF 7.4
 DURING THE PAST HOUR OR SO.  BASED ON THESE DATA..THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 155 KNOTS. THIS MAKES RICK THE
 SECOND STRONGEST HURRICANE ON RECORD IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AFTER
 LINDA IN 1997.
  
 THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RICK TO GATHER A LITTLE MORE STRENGTH
 TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT MOST LIKELY THE HURRICANE WILL
 FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DUE TO POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
 DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...RICK IS EXPECTED TO
 SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE AND THE CYCLONE MOVES
 OVER RELATIVELY COOLER WATERS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH GUIDANCE
 WHICH UNANIMOUSLY INDICATES THAT RICK HAS ALREADY REACHED...OR IS
 VERY CLOSE TO ITS PEAK INTENSITY.
  
 RICK CONTINUES RIGHT ON TRACK AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW
 SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER...IN A DAY OR
 SO...THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE.. THE SUBTROPICAL
 HIGH WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING RICK ON A WESTWARD COURSE AWAY FROM
 MEXICO WILL BE ERODED BY A SHORT WAVE PASSING TO THE NORTH.  THIS
 NEW STEERING PATTERN SHOULD FORCE RICK TO RECURVE TOWARD THE NORTH
 AND NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN TOWARD
 MAINLAND MEXICO. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UK MODEL WHICH KEEPS
 RICK MOVING WESTWARD...THE REST OF THE MODELS RESPOND TO THE CHANGE
 IN STEERING BY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
 AT DIFFERENT SPEEDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MODEL TREND
 AND IS THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
  
 THE HURRICANE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY FIVE AS IT APPROACHES
 BAJA CALIFORNIA BUT IS FORECAST TO BE INTENSE. INTERESTS ON THE
 SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CLOSELY
 MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DURING
 THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/0300Z 15.0N 105.9W   155 KT
  12HR VT     18/1200Z 15.7N 107.8W   160 KT
  24HR VT     19/0000Z 16.6N 110.0W   150 KT
  36HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W   140 KT
  48HR VT     20/0000Z 18.5N 112.0W   120 KT
  72HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 111.5W   105 KT
  96HR VT     22/0000Z 23.5N 110.0W    80 KT
 120HR VT     23/0000Z 27.0N 106.0W    40 KT...INLAND
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 

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