951 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 162038
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
 200 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009
 
 RICK IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING...WITH THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY
 INCREASING 40-45 KT SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY
 NEAR 14Z SHOWED AN EYE AND EYEWALL FORMING...AND THE EYE HAS
 OCCASIONALLY APPEARED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
 INCREASED TO 75 KT BASED ON 18Z SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77
 KT FROM TAFB AND 65 KT FROM SAB.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS CURRENTLY
 GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 285/8.  THE HURRICANE REMAINS ON THE SOUTH
 SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND THE NORTHEASTERN
 PACIFIC...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD BE THE
 CASE FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HRS.  DURING THAT TIME...THE NEW TRACK
 FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR A
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ALONG A TRACK JUST SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS
 MODELS.  AFTER 72 HR...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS A
 MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
 STATES.  THE TRACK FORECASTS BECOME DIVERGENT AT THAT POINT.  THE
 GFDL...HWRF...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS SHOW RECURVATURE TO THE
 NORTH-NORTHEAST...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING LANDFALL IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
 BEFORE 120 HRS.  THE NOGAPS...GFS...AND GFDN MODELS SHOW A TURN TO
 THE NORTH AND A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  THE UKMET FORECASTS A
 CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...WHICH LOOKS SUSPECT AS IT
 APPEARS THE MODEL PREMATURELY SHEARS OFF THE TOP OF RICK. 
 OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT
 AFTER 72 HR...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS FOLLOWED SUIT.  THE
 TRACK FORECAST AFTER 72 HRS LIES JUST TO THE EAST OF THE VARIOUS
 CONSENSUS MODELS.
 
 RICK REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER
 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 30C...AND THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
 CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO.  ALL GUIDANCE FORECASTS
 CONTINUED STRENGTHENING...WITH THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS FORECASTING
 PEAK INTENSITIES NEAR 125 KT IN ABOUT 48 HR.  THE NEW INTENSITY
 FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING...WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
 125 KT IN 48 HRS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL AND HWRF.  HOWEVER...
 RICK HAS DEVELOPED FASTER THAN ANY OF THE GUIDANCE HAS FORECAST...
 AND THAT TREND COULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS.  UNLESS
 DEVELOPMENT IS INTERRUPTED BY AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AN
 ALTERNATIVE FORECAST SCENARIO IS THAT RICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN
 UNTIL IT APPROACHES THE MAXIMUM POTENTIAL INTENSITY FOR THAT
 AREA...WHICH IS CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH.  REGARDLESS OF THE PEAK
 INTENSITY...AFTER 48-72 HRS RICK SHOULD MOVE OVER COOLER SEA
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND ENCOUNTER STRONGER SHEAR...WHICH SHOULD
 START A WEAKENING TREND.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/2100Z 13.0N 100.0W    75 KT
  12HR VT     17/0600Z 13.2N 101.3W    90 KT
  24HR VT     17/1800Z 13.7N 103.3W   105 KT
  36HR VT     18/0600Z 14.3N 105.8W   115 KT
  48HR VT     18/1800Z 15.0N 108.1W   125 KT
  72HR VT     19/1800Z 16.5N 111.5W   120 KT
  96HR VT     20/1800Z 18.5N 113.0W   105 KT
 120HR VT     21/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W    85 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 

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