483 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 161438
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
 800 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2009
  
 RICK IS RAPIDLY SPINNING UP THIS MORNING AS A CURVED BAND OF DEEP
 CONVECTION HAS WRAPPED COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER.  BASED UPON
 THIS STRUCTURE...THE DVORAK ESTIMATES CAME IN FROM SAB AND TAFB AT
 T3.5 AND 4.0...RESPECTIVELY.  BECAUSE OF CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT
 SINCE THE SYNOPTIC TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 65
 KT...MAKING RICK THE 7TH HURRICANE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
 HURRICANE SEASON.
 
 RICK IS MOVING 280/08...WHILE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A STRONG
 DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE.  THIS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE TO CONTINUE
 STEERING RICK TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT THREE
 DAYS.  AT THE LONGER RANGES...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN WHETHER RICK
 WILL CONTINUE AS A STRAIGHT-MOVER...SLOW SUBSTANTIALLY...OR RECURVE
 TOWARD BAJA CALIFORNIA.  THE REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...GFDL AND
 HWRF...ARE CALLING FOR THE LATTER SCENARIO...BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE
 BREAKING THE RIDGE DOWN UNREALISTICALLY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...SOUTHWESTWARD...OF THE PREVIOUS NHC
 PREDICTION...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH HAS ALSO
 SHIFTED SOME TO THE LEFT.
  
 RICK IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A VERY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH
 ABUNDANT LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
 PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND THE SHIPS ANALYSIS OF RELATIVE
 HUMIDITY.  RICK IS ALSO TRAVERSING OVER VERY WARM...30C...WATERS. 
 THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH
 CHANCE...74%...OF 30 KT OF INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
 THIS IS THE BASIS FOR BRINGING RICK'S WINDS TO 90 KT TOMORROW
 MORNING.  THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY INHIBITING FACTORS FOR
 CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS AND THE
 INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS RICK PEAKING AS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE. 
 AT THE LONGER RANGES...THE SSTS ENCOUNTERED BY RICK SHOULD COOL
 SOME WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE SOME.  WEAKENING TO A
 CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE IS THUS INDICATED BY DAY 5.  THE INTENSITY
 PREDICTION IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS MODEL AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST.
   
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      16/1500Z 12.7N  99.4W    65 KT
  12HR VT     17/0000Z 12.9N 100.5W    75 KT
  24HR VT     17/1200Z 13.3N 102.4W    90 KT
  36HR VT     18/0000Z 13.7N 104.6W   100 KT
  48HR VT     18/1200Z 14.3N 106.9W   115 KT
  72HR VT     19/1200Z 15.5N 111.0W   115 KT
  96HR VT     20/1200Z 17.0N 113.0W   105 KT
 120HR VT     21/1200Z 19.0N 113.5W    90 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER LANDSEA/BEVEN
  
 

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