348 
 WTPZ25 KNHC 160235
 TCMEP5
 TROPICAL STORM RICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP202009
 0300 UTC FRI OCT 16 2009
  
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  97.7W AT 16/0300Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
 34 KT....... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
 12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE   0SW  30NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  97.7W AT 16/0300Z
 AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N  97.3W
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 12.8N  98.8W
 MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.3N 100.3W
 MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 50 KT... 50NE  45SE  45SW  50NW.
 34 KT...105NE  90SE  90SW 105NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.8N 102.1W
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 64 KT... 35NE  30SE  30SW  35NW.
 50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
 34 KT...120NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.3N 104.5W
 MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 50 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 34 KT...150NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.7N 109.0W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
 50 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 34 KT...180NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W
 MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N 112.5W
 MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  97.7W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE
  
  
 

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