098 
 WTPA41 PHFO 110313
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 500 PM HST SUN JAN 10 2016
  
 OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...THE COLD TOPS OVER PALI HAVE SHIFTED OFF
 TO THE EAST...BUT THE CURVED BAND HAS WRAPPED FARTHER AROUND THE
 CENTER. MICROWAVE PASSES AT 10/2331 UTC AND 11/0149Z APPEAR TO SHOW
 A PARTIAL EYEWALL ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.
 SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSES WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM PHFO AND SAB AND
 2.0/30 KT FROM JTWC. BASED ON THE RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES I HAVE
 INCREASED THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 50 KT.
  
 ANIMATION OF INFRARED IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION OF MICROWAVE
 POSITIONS SHOW PALI MOVING VERY SLOWLY. PALI REMAINS IN AN EAST
 NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST TROUGH BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
 THE NORTH AND WESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE EQUATOR. TROPICAL CYCLONES
 WITHIN TROUGHS LIKE THIS...WHICH IS MUCH LIKE A MONSOON
 TROUGH...OFTEN MAKE SLOW LOOPS WITHIN THE TROUGH...AND PALI SEEMS TO
 BE DOING THAT. THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD
 AGREEMENT SHOWING THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUING TO MOVE EAST SLOWLY
 OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THEN CURVING TOWARD THE SOUTH THROUGH 48
 HOURS.  AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE
 SOUTHWEST...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THE NEW
 OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS TRACK
 AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE LATEST RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE.
  
 CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. MODEL GUIDANCE
 CONTINUES TO SHOW WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND RATHER LOW SHEAR
 ALONG THE TRACK. HOWEVER...THE CHANGING CLOUD PATTERN APPEARS TO
 SHOW FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY SHEAR. ALSO...IT SEEMS DOUBTFUL
 THAT PALI WOULD REMAIN A STRONG SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO VERY LOW
 LATITUDES. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN BOOSTED A BIT SINCE
 THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MAINTAINS PALI AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH
 96 HOURS...THEN WEAKENS IT TO A DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES CLOSE TO THE
 EQUATOR.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/0300Z  7.5N 174.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  11/1200Z  7.9N 173.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  12/0000Z  8.0N 173.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  12/1200Z  7.5N 172.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  13/0000Z  6.5N 172.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  14/0000Z  4.5N 172.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  15/0000Z  3.0N 173.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  16/0000Z  2.0N 175.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON
 

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