455 
 WTPA41 PHFO 101447
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 500 AM HST SUN JAN 10 2016
  
 PALI HAS PRODUCED A LARGE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE PAST
 SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS HAVING ESTIMATED
 TEMPERATURES NEAR -90C. A 0910 UTC AMSU PASS INDICATED THAT THE 
 LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF PALI WAS LOCATED UNDERNEATH
 BUT ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS. SUBJECTIVE
 DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 2.5/35 KT FROM HFO AND
 2.0/30 KT FROM SAB/JTWC...WHILE THE CIMSS ADT CURRENT INTENSITY
 ESTIMATE HAS RECENTLY CREPT UP TO 2.9/43 KT. TAKING A BLEND OF THE
 ABOVE DATA...WE HAVE MAINTAINED PALI AS A 35 KT TROPICAL STORM FOR
 THIS ADVISORY.
 
 SATELLITE ANIMATIONS AND MICROWAVE IMAGES ALL INDICATE THAT PALI HAS
 MOVED LITTLE OVERNIGHT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS
 NEARLY STATIONARY. PALI IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER EAST TO WEST
 ORIENTED LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THAT LIES BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF
 ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
 EQUATOR...AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS SOUTH OF A DEEP RIDGE
 CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 18N. THE RELIABLE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
 REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY. A SLOW NORTHEAST TO EAST DRIFT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
 IS INDICATED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
 THE SOUTH BY 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...GUIDANCE ACCELERATES THE CYCLONE
 TOWARD THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD BY DAYS 4
 AND 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK...AND REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND
 THE TVCN CONSENSUS.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. AFTER A LONG PERIOD WITH
 ALMOST NO DEEP CONVECTION ANYWHERE NEAR THE LLCC LATE FRIDAY
 AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT...PALI HAS MAINTAINED PERSISTENT DEEP
 CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER FOR ABOUT THE PAST 24 HOURS NOW. THE
 SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS INDICATIVE OF CONTINUED EAST TO SOUTHEAST
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH THE SHEAR MAGNITUDE ESTIMATED TO BE 17 KT
 BY SHIPS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE SHEAR CONTINUING THROUGH
 MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE SHEAR DIRECTION GRADUALLY
 VEERING AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST THEN TO THE SOUTH. SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK ARE
 CERTAINLY MORE THAN ADEQUATE TO MAINTAIN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES DEPICT ABUNDANT DRY AIR AROUND THE
 FAR OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONE...BUT THIS DOES NOT SEEM TO BE
 NEGATIVELY IMPACTING THE INNER CORE OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.
 INTENSITY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY A WIDE SPREAD...WITH THE
 GFDL/HWRF INTENSIFYING THE CYCLONE TO A HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT
 FEW DAYS...WHILE THE SHIPS/LGEM WEAKEN PALI TO A DEPRESSION...AND
 THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW LITTLE CHANGE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS
 UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...MAINTAINING PALI AS A MINIMAL
 TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN WEAKENING IT TO A DEPRESSION
 THEREAFTER AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND CLOSER TO THE EQUATOR. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/1500Z  7.6N 174.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  11/0000Z  7.7N 174.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  11/1200Z  7.9N 173.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
  36H  12/0000Z  7.8N 173.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  48H  12/1200Z  7.0N 173.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  13/1200Z  4.4N 174.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  96H  14/1200Z  2.5N 175.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  15/1200Z  1.5N 176.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER JACOBSON
 

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