723 
 WTPA41 PHFO 090241
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 500 PM HST FRI JAN 08 2016
  
 DEEP CONVECTION AROUND TROPICAL STORM PALI HAS ALMOST COMPLETELY
 COLLAPSED THIS AFTERNOON. THE LLCC IS NOW CLEARLY SEEN FAR EAST OF
 REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN VISIBLE LOOPS...GREATLY INCREASING FIX
 AND MOTION CONFIDENCE. IN SPITE OF THE RAPID DECREASE IN DEEP
 CONVECTION...LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS QUITE ROBUST. A WELL
 PLACED 2049 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SWATH OF 50 KT WINDS WITHIN THE
 SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. ALL WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED FOR
 THIS ADVISORY BASED ON THIS ASCAT PASS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES...HEAVILY WEIGHTED ON ORGANIZATION OF DEEP
 CONVECTION...WERE NOTICEABLY LOWER THAN INTENSITY DEPICTED IN ASCAT
 AT 3.0...45 KT...FROM ALL THREE SATELLITE CENTERS. UW-CIMSS ADT WAS
 EVEN LOWER AT 40 KT. ASCAT IS MOST COMPELLING HERE...AND THE
 INITIAL PALI INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY WILL BE MAINTAINED AT 55
 KT.
 
 TO MAINTAIN A PLAUSIBLE BEST TRACK...THE 1800 UTC POSITION WAS
 REBESTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO GIVE A SMOOTH NORTHWEST MOTION...315
 DEGREES...AT 4 KT. PALI REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW LATITUDE
 TROUGH INDUCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES JUST SOUTH OF THE EQUATOR.
 TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS REASONABLY WELL CLUSTERED...DEPICTING A
 GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH DAY TWO...THEN A CONTINUED
 TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ON DAYS THREE THROUGH FIVE. MODELS
 CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SHARPNESS OF THE SOUTHWEST TURN BUT AGREE
 RATHER WELL THROUGH DAY TWO. THE FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
 ARC OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT FOR
 INITIAL MOTION. FORWARD MOTION WAS INCREASED ON DAYS THREE THROUGH
 FIVE SINCE THIS IS NOW BECOMING MORE WIDELY INDICATED IN GUIDANCE.
 THE FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO LIE BETWEEN GFEX AND TVCN
 CONSENSUS. 
 
 WITH SSTS GREATER THAN 28C AND DECREASING SHEAR FORECAST AFTER 12
 HOURS...PALI WILL LIKELY SURVIVE DISSIPATION IN SPITE OF THE RAPID
 LOSS OF DEEP CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST TRACK KEEPS PALI
 WITHIN THE LOW LATITUDE TROUGH THROUGH ITS LIFETIME...LIKELY
 PREVENTING INTENSIFICATION. ONLY GFDL INTENSIFIES PALI...LEAVING
 THE VAST BULK OF INTENSITY GUIDANCE CALLING FOR SLOW WEAKENING. THE
 CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS TREND...KEEPING PALI AT TROPICAL
 STORM STRENGTH THROUGH DAY FIVE WHILE KEEPING IT WITHIN THE CENTRAL
 NORTH PACIFIC BASIN.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/0300Z  7.6N 172.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  09/1200Z  7.9N 173.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  10/0000Z  8.2N 174.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  10/1200Z  8.3N 174.6W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  11/0000Z  8.2N 174.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  12/0000Z  7.7N 175.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  13/0000Z  6.7N 175.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  14/0000Z  5.5N 176.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER POWELL
 

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