114 
 WTPA41 PHFO 080256
 TCDCP1
 
 TROPICAL STORM PALI DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   CP012016
 500 PM HST THU JAN 07 2016
  
 PAIL REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT THE CLOUD TOPS
 HAVE WARMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES WERE 3.0/45 KT FROM ALL SITES. I HAVE KEPT THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY UNCHANGED AT 45 KT.
  
 FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
 SHOWING PALI TRACKING NORTHWEST TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE REBUILDS NORTHWEST OF
 PALI AND THE STORM WILL BE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING FLOW BETWEEN
 THE EASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
 WESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE EQUATOR. THE MODELS DIVERGE AT THAT POINT
 WITH MOST SHOWING THE SYSTEM BECOMING SLOW-MOVING AND CURVING WEST
 THEN SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH. HOWEVER...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MODEL
 SPREAD WITH SOME MODELS TURNING THE SYSTEM SHARPLY SOUTHEAST AND
 OTHERS KEEPING IT MOVING OFF TOWARD THE WEST. I HAVE KEPT PALI ON A
 FISHHOOK-SHAPED TRACK...TURNING SOUTHWEST...THEN SOUTH FOLLOWING THE
 MODEL CONSENSUS. IN ANY CASE FORWARD MOTION IS LIKELY TO BE QUITE
 SLOW AFTER 24 HOURS.
  
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS IVCN GUIDANCE WITH LITTLE
 CHANGE FOR 36 HOURS...THEN VERY SLOW WEAKENING. DESPITE THE
 SEASON...THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK
 IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM TO SUPPORT A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
 LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH
 THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTH...AND A DEVELOPING TROUGH ALOFT
 IN WHICH THE CYCLONE MAY BECOME EMBEDDED.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  08/0300Z  5.2N 171.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  08/1200Z  5.9N 171.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  09/0000Z  7.0N 172.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  09/1200Z  7.6N 173.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  10/0000Z  8.0N 173.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  72H  11/0000Z  8.2N 174.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  12/0000Z  8.0N 175.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  13/0000Z  7.5N 175.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER DONALDSON
 

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