552 
 WTNT41 KNHC 010809
 TCDAT1
 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 4 AM EST WED DEC 01 2004
  
 THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY OR PERHAPS A SLOW
 NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT.  A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERELIES
 IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD THE STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
 DAYS.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS RESPOND TO THIS WITH A SLOW
 SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...EXCEPT THE UKMET
 WHICH SHOWS A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
 IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OR SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK
 FORECAST BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS.
  
 THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION...AND WHAT THERE IS IS CONFINED TO
 THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.  HOWEVER THERE IS A 06Z SHIP REPORT OF 50 KT
 AND 995.1 MB ABOUT 100 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THE SHIP WIND
 APPEARS TOO HIGH AND THE PRESSURE TOO LOW...SO THE THE INITIAL WIND
 SPEED IS INCREASED TO A COMPROMISE 45 KT.  THE SAME TROUGH REFERRED
 TO ABOVE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE WESTERLIES OVER THE STORM AND
 THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KT
 IN 48 HOURS AND OVER 40 KT BY 96 HOURS.  FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL
 AND THE PREVIOUS ADVIORY...THE FORECAST IS FOR WEAKENING AFTER 24
 HOURS.
  
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      01/0900Z 31.9N  50.7W    45 KT
  12HR VT     01/1800Z 31.8N  50.3W    45 KT
  24HR VT     02/0600Z 31.0N  50.0W    45 KT
  36HR VT     02/1800Z 30.0N  49.5W    40 KT
  48HR VT     03/0600Z 29.1N  48.5W    35 KT
  72HR VT     04/0600Z 27.8N  46.7W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     05/0600Z 27.0N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNAT LOW
 120HR VT     06/0600Z 26.5N  43.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$
 
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