136 
 WTNT43 KNHC 062048
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM MARCO DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL132008
 500 PM EDT MON OCT 06 2008
  
 A TIMELY MISSION FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS...
 TASKED WITH LITTLE ADVANCE NOTICE...REVEALS THAT THE DEPRESSION
 OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A
 TROPICAL STORM.  PEAK SFMR WINDS WERE 53 KT AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL
 WINDS WERE 61 KT.  THESE DATA SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF
 ABOUT 55 KT.  SINCE THE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT ARE
 SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE...ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN IN LINE
 WITH THE LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE.  MARCO COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE
 STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST...AND ACCORDINGLY A HURRICANE
 WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO.
 IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE CURRENT INTENSIFICATION TREND
 CONTINUES...IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO ISSUE A HURRICANE WARNING LATER
 THIS EVENING.
  
 INITIAL MOTION...295/9...IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
 ESTIMATE.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE MUCH CHANGE IN
 HEADING OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS DUE TO A PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL RIDGE
 TO THE NORTH OF MARCO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED ONLY
 SLIGHTLY TO RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE
 OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.
  
 WE THANK THE 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE SQUADRON FOR THEIR QUICK
 RESPONSE TO OUR SHORT-NOTICE REQUEST TO INVESTIGATE THIS STORM.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      06/2100Z 19.5N  94.7W    55 KT
  12HR VT     07/0600Z 20.0N  95.6W    60 KT
  24HR VT     07/1800Z 20.5N  97.0W    60 KT
  36HR VT     08/0600Z 21.0N  98.5W    25 KT...INLAND
  48HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for MARCO

Back to main Tropical Weather page







This page was last modified on: , 21 2010 - 2314 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman