402 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 081432
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152009
 800 AM PDT TUE SEP 08 2009
  
 DEEP CONVECTION HAS REFORMED NEAR THE CENTER BUT THE CLOUD PATTERN
 IS ELONGATED NORTH-SOUTH DUE SHEAR. T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED AND
 STILL SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS...AND THIS ESTIMATE
 COULD BE A LITTLE BIT GENEROUS. LINDA HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO
 STRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE THE SHEAR
 INCREASES AND THE CYCLONE ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS. THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL AND STAYS AWAY FROM THE GFDL/HWRF
 MODEL PAIR THAT FORECAST LINDA TO BECOME A HURRICANE.
  
 LINDA HAS BEEN MEANDERING WESTWARD WHILE EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT
 STEERING CURRENTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
 RIDGE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE LINDA TO
 BEGIN TO MOVE MORE TO THE NORTHWEST SOON AND THEN NORTHWARD WITH
 SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BEYOND THREE DAYS LINDA OR ITS
 REMNANTS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
 BEGIN TO RECURVE.   THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
 MODEL CONSENSUS PRIMARILY THROUGH 72 HOURS.
    
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      08/1500Z 15.2N 128.4W    50 KT
  12HR VT     09/0000Z 15.4N 128.9W    55 KT
  24HR VT     09/1200Z 16.0N 129.5W    55 KT
  36HR VT     10/0000Z 17.0N 130.0W    50 KT
  48HR VT     10/1200Z 18.5N 131.0W    45 KT
  72HR VT     11/1200Z 21.5N 132.0W    40 KT
  96HR VT     12/1200Z 24.0N 133.0W    25 KT
 120HR VT     13/1200Z 25.0N 132.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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