054 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 110849
 TCDEP5
  
 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 11 2011
  
 RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE INNER CORE OF THE HURRICANE
 HAS DEGRADED WITH THE EYE NO LONGER CLOSED AND ONLY THE WESTERN
 PORTION OF THE EYEWALL INTACT.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM
 SAB AND TAFB....AND ADT ESTIMATES FROM UW-CIMSS HAVE AGAIN
 DECREASED.  THE WIND SPEED IS THEREFORE LOWERED TO 100 KT...WHICH
 IS A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS T- AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS.  JOVA
 WILL BE MOVING OVER 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS WATER AND REMAIN IN
 MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR UNTIL LANDFALL.  NEARLY ALL OF THE
 INTENSITY MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT DECREASE IN THE WIND SPEED BEFORE
 THE HURRICANE REACHES MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ALSO CALLS FOR
 A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN INTENSITY...AND JOVA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A 
 POWERFUL HURRICANE AT LANDFALL.  RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR AS THE
 CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN
 MEXICO...AND JOVA COULD WEAKEN EVEN MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED
 BELOW. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030/5 KT.  THE
 HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING DURING THE
 NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.  AFTER THAT...JOVA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
 NORTHWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AND A 
 MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA.  THE
 UPDATED TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...BUT LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE
 EARLIER TRACK THEREAFTER.  THE NEW FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
 CONSENSUS AND THE 00Z ECMWF. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  11/0900Z 17.5N 105.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
  12H  11/1800Z 18.6N 105.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  12/0600Z 19.9N 105.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
  36H  12/1800Z 21.3N 105.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
  48H  13/0600Z 22.2N 105.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  72H  14/0600Z 23.5N 105.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  15/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 

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