081 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 101447
 TCDEP5
  
 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
 800 AM PDT MON OCT 10 2011
  
 THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JOVA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND A
 WELL-DEFINED 20 NMI DIAMETER EYE IS APPARENT IN THE FIRST FEW
 VISIBLE IMAGES. CLOUDS TOPS HAVE CONTINUED TO COOL AND THE EYE HAS
 WARMED BY MORE THAN 30C IN INFRARED IMAGERY SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY
 AS THE EYE HAS CLEARED OUT. HOWEVER...THE SURROUNDING RING OF
 COLDEST TEMPERATURES HAS HAD INTERMITTENT BREAKS IN IT. ALTHOUGH
 THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T6.0/115 KT FROM TAFB...
 SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
 TO 110 KT...JUST BELOW CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
 HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO RECONNOITER JOVA...WHICH
 WILL PROVIDE A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
 
 THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/04 KT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
 A BROAD DEEP-LAYER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF JOVA IS BEGINNING TO
 IMPINGE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. FARTHER
 EAST...12Z UPPER AIR DATA INDICATE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
 SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO HAVE
 INCREASED BY 30-50 METERS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH MEANS THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS STRENGTHENING TO THE EAST OF JOVA. THE RESULT
 IS THAT THE HURRICANE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FAIRLY SOON.
 THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SHORT-RANGE
 SCENARIO. HOWEVER...AFTER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE MODELS
 BEING IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT OUT THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS...RECENT
 MODEL RUNS NOW SHOW A MUCH WIDER VARIATION IN THE MODEL TRACKS. THE
 UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS TAKE JOVA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AND INLAND
 FARTHER SOUTH ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO...AND IN CONTRAST...THE GFS
 AND GFDL MODELS TAKE THE HURRICANE ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD FROM ITS
 CURRENT POSITION AND KEEP THE CYCLONE JUST OFFSHORE. THE HWRF...
 ECMWF...AND TVCN AND HFIP CONSENSUS MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO
 EXTREMES AND ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER. AS A RESULT...
 A BLEND OF THOSE MODELS WERE USED IN CONSTRUCTING THE CURRENT
 FORECAST TRACK...WHICH LIES JUST A TAD EAST OF THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY TRACK. 
 
 JOVA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
 SHEAR AND OVER SSTS WARMER THAN 29C UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS.
 THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND JOVA COULD
 BECOME A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE TODAY. JOVA IS A RELATIVELY SMALL
 CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS THE CYCLONE CAN EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT
 CHANGES IN INTENSITY...BOTH UP AND DOWN...IN RELATIVELY SHORT TIME
 PERIODS. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND CALLS FOR JOVA TO BE AT LEAST
 A MAJOR HURRICANE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE...
 GFDL...AND HWRF MODELS...WHICH HAVE THUS FAR PERFORMED QUITE WELL
 WITH JOVA.
 
 INTERESTS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT TRACK AND FORECAST
 LANDFALL POINT...BECAUSE THE HURRICANE IS NOT JUST A POINT AND THE
 36- AND 48-HOUR TRACK FORECASTS HAVE AVERAGE ERRORS OF ABOUT 75
 AND 100 MILES...RESPECTIVELY. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  10/1500Z 16.3N 106.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
  12H  11/0000Z 16.6N 106.2W  115 KT 135 MPH
  24H  11/1200Z 17.3N 105.5W  115 KT 135 MPH
  36H  12/0000Z 18.5N 104.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
  48H  12/1200Z 20.1N 104.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
  72H  13/1200Z 22.0N 104.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  96H  14/1200Z 24.5N 105.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  15/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 
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