620 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 091433
 TCDEP5
  
 HURRICANE JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 09 2011
  
 SATELLITE DATA INDICATE JOVA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN. ALTHOUGH 
 A 09/0936Z AMSU OVERPASS REVEALED THE EYE WAS OPEN TO THE
 NORTHEAST...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE THAT TIME INDICATES
 CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED AND HAVE WRAPPED AROUND WHAT APPEARS TO BE 
 A DEVELOPING WARM SPOT OR EYE IN THE CENTER OF THE SMALL CDO.
 SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE T4.5/77
 KT...AND UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE ADT ESTIMATE IS T4.6/79 KT. BASED ON
 THIS INFORMATION AND THE IMPROVED SATELLITE SIGNATURE...THE
 INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 80 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
 HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE JOVA AND SHOULD PROVIDE
 A BETTER INTENSITY ESTIMATE.
  
 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT JOVA IS
 MOVING EASTWARD...OR 090/05 KT...ALBEIT SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
 PREVIOUS TRACK. OTHER THAN THE SLIGHT NORTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...
 THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR
 RATIONALE. JOVA SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36
 HOURS OR SO IN WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A BROAD
 MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO ITS NORTH AND A NARROW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 TO ITS SOUTH. BY 48 HOURS...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS FORECAST
 TO AMPLIFY AND LIFT NORTHWARD...WHICH SHOULD ALSO CAUSE JOVA TO
 LIFT OUT TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. OTHER THAN SPEED DIFFERENCES...
 THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS DEVELOPING
 SCENARIO...ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO
 THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH LANDFALL IS INDICATED ALONG THE
 COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN 60-72 HOURS...USERS SHOULD NOT
 FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK SINCE THE AVERAGE FORECAST ERROR
 AT 72 HOURS IS ABOUT 120 NMI.
  
 THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS SHIPS AND LGEM STILL APPEAR TO BE
 SUFFERING FROM NEGATIVE FEEDBACK FROM THE GFS MODEL DUE TO WARMING
 THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALSO CREATING EXCESSIVE SHEAR OWING TO ENHANCED
 OUTFLOW THAT DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHEAST OF JOVA BY 48 HOURS. BOTH
 THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS GENERATE A VERY ROBUST HURRICANE BY 48
 HOURS...AS DO THE HWRF AND GFDL MODELS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
 BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CONSISTENT FORECASTS OF MAJOR
 HURRICANE STATUS BY THE LATTER TWO MODELS OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...
 COUPLED WITH THE VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
 FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FROM NOW UNTIL LANDFALL. JOVA
 IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE AT LANDFALL...AND THEN WEAKEN
 QUICKLY DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
 SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.
 
 BASED ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...A HURRICANE WATCH WILL
 LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER TODAY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  09/1500Z 16.2N 108.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  10/0000Z 16.2N 107.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  10/1200Z 16.2N 106.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  11/0000Z 16.6N 105.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
  48H  11/1200Z 17.5N 105.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  12/1200Z 20.3N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND
  96H  13/1200Z 23.5N 104.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 
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