347 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 080248
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL STORM JOVA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
 800 PM PDT FRI OCT 07 2011
 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS THAT JOVA REMAINS A SHEARED
 SYSTEM...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN
 CONVECTIVE MASS.  ANALYSES FROM THE SHIPS MODEL AND CIMSS AT THE
 UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE SHOWING ABOUT 10 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.  THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE
 ORGANIZATION ARE UNCHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT.
 
 JOVA IS GRADUALLY TURNING NORTHWARD...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION NOW
 350/7.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
 COVERING THE PACIFIC NORTH OF 20N EAST OF 130W.  THE DYNAMICAL
 MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS. 
 HOWEVER...ENOUGH TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE AREA TO
 SLOWLY STEER JOVA IN A GENERAL NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.  THIS MOTION
 SHOULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
 MEXICO IN 3-4 DAYS TIME.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
 ON THE DIRECTION OF MOTION...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE
 FORWARD SPEED AND LANDFALL TIME BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS-BASED
 GUIDANCE AND THE SLOWER ECMWF/UKMET/NOGAPS MODELS.  THE NEW
 FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH THE CENTER
 NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO AT 72 HOURS AND WELL INLAND AT 96 HOURS.
 
 THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CURRENT SHEAR TO ABATE DURING THE
 NEXT 12-24 HOURS.  IF THIS VERIFIES...JOVA SHOULD START TO
 STRENGTHEN...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SYSTEM SHOULD
 REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 24 HOURS OR SO.  THIS IS REFLECTED IN
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DIVERGENCE
 IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS
 FORECAST JOVA TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65-75 KT BEFORE
 LANDFALL...WHILE THE HWRF AND GFDL FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
 MAJOR HURRICANE.  THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSTICS SHOW LIGHT SHEAR FROM
 24-72 HOURS...SO IT IS UNCLEAR WHY SHIPS AND LGEM DO NOT SHOW MORE
 STRENGTHENING.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST...CALLING FOR JOVA TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE
 BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO.  AFTER LANDFALL...JOVA SHOULD QUICKLY
 WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  08/0300Z 15.3N 110.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  08/1200Z 15.9N 110.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  09/0000Z 16.4N 109.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  09/1200Z 16.9N 108.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  10/0000Z 17.4N 107.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
  72H  11/0000Z 19.0N 105.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  12/0000Z 21.5N 103.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 120H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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