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123 WTPZ45 KNHC 060849 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102011 200 AM PDT THU OCT 06 2011 VERY DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR OR JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CENTER. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT KEEPING THE WIND SPEED AT 30 KT AT THIS TIME. THE FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT FROM THE GLOBAL MODELS APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AND SINCE THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATERS...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE AFTER 36 HOURS...ABOVE THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE AND NEAR THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS LIKELY TO BREAK DOWN BY DAY 3 AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...CAUSING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY FASTER AND FARTHER TO THE RIGHT THAN EARLIER...AND GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN...THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE IS STILL FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY NEED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 10.3N 105.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 10.7N 106.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 11.5N 108.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 12.4N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 13.6N 109.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 15.1N 109.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 17.0N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 18.3N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKEReturn to the Tropical Systems Page for JOVA Back to main Tropical Weather page
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