112 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 060311
 TCDEP5
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102011
 800 PM PDT WED OCT 05 2011
  
 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTIVE
 ORGANIZATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTH
 OF MANZANILLO HAS INCREASED.  A CDO-LIKE FEATURE WITH CLOUD TOP
 TEMPERATURES TO -90C HAS RECENTLY FORMED...WITH MICROWAVE DATA
 SUGGESTING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF IT.     
 DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC BUT
 THIS WAS BEFORE THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE MASS DEVELOPED. BASED ON THE
 SUBSEQUENT INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...ADVISORIES ARE BEING
 INITIATED ON THE SYSTEM AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
 
 SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL MOTION
 ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/09.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
 ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD COURSE FOR THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
 CENTERED OFFSHORE OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO.  BETWEEN 48-72 HOURS...AN
 UNSEASONABLY STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
 SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD ERODE THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE
 TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD.  THE DEPRESSION
 IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AFTER 72 HOURS AS IT COMES
 UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER OF WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE
 REGION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS LEFT OF ALL OF THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE BAMS AND
 ECMWF MODELS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THE
 INITIAL MOTION AND LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION...SO THE OFFICIAL
 TRACK FORECAST IS OF RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE. 
 
 SHIPS AND UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES CURRENTLY DIAGNOSE MODERATE
 NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION.  GLOBAL MODELS
 INDICATE THAT SHEAR OF ABOUT THIS MAGNITUDE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
 NEXT 48-72 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY
 CONSENSUS AIDS BY SHOWING ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS
 TIME.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO PEAK IN STRENGTH AROUND THE POINT
 OF RECURVATURE AND JUST PRIOR TO ENCOUNTERING AN INCREASE IN
 WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT IS OF
 LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY
 REGARDING THE TRACK FORECAST.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  06/0300Z 10.0N 105.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  06/1200Z 10.2N 106.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  07/0000Z 10.6N 107.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  07/1200Z 11.1N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  48H  08/0000Z 11.8N 109.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  09/0000Z 13.6N 110.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  10/0000Z 15.6N 108.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  11/0000Z 17.4N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
  
 

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