206 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 262038
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009
 200 PM PDT WED AUG 26 2009
  
 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF IGNACIO IS EXPOSED WELL TO THE WEST OF A
 WEAKENING BAND OF CONVECTION.  A QUIKSCAT PASS THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY
 AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY SHOWED SOME RELIABLE
 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  AN ASCAT PASS
 THAT WAS JUST RECEIVED SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
 QUADRANT BUT DID NOT SAMPLE THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. 
 A BLEND OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA AND CURRENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES
 YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT.  IGNACIO WILL BE MOVING OVER
 PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS DURING
 THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE
 IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...IF NOT
 SOONER.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/10...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN BEFORE.
 IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD...THEN TURN WEST IN THE
 LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM. 
 THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT LIES
 A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE-WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OVER THE
 EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
 AND ASCAT DATA.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/2100Z 22.1N 124.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     27/0600Z 23.3N 126.0W    30 KT
  24HR VT     27/1800Z 25.0N 128.2W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     28/0600Z 26.4N 129.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     28/1800Z 27.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     29/1800Z 27.0N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH
  
 

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