591 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 261445
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009
 800 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2009
  
 THE MID- AND LOW-LEVEL CENTERS OF IGNACIO HAVE SEPARATED DURING THE
 PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AMSR-E AND TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGERY WERE CRUCIAL
 IN LOCATING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER EARLY THIS MORNING.  MORE
 RECENTLY...THE CENTER IS BECOMING APPARENT IN CONVENTIONAL
 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND IT IS ABOUT 120 N MI SOUTHWEST OF THE
 REMAINING BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION SEEN OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON DATA T-NUMBERS
 THAT HAVE DECREASED TO 2.5 FROM BOTH AGENCIES.  IGNACIO IS ALREADY
 OVER SUB 26C SSTS AND IS HEADED FOR EVEN COOLER WATER.  GRADUAL
 WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
 REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS OR LESS.
  
 THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. IGNACIO IS FORECAST
 TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY
 OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER MEXICO.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN
 MORE WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...BUT
 HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE MORE
 WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/1500Z 21.6N 124.0W    40 KT
  12HR VT     27/0000Z 22.8N 125.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     27/1200Z 24.5N 127.9W    30 KT
  36HR VT     28/0000Z 26.1N 129.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     28/1200Z 27.0N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     29/1200Z 27.5N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 

This page was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman