235 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 260832
 TCDEP2
 TROPICAL STORM IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122009
 200 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2009
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO HAVE THE SHAPE OF A TROPICAL STORM
 WITH CYCLONICALLY-CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW.
 HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY WEAKENING. DVORAK
 T-NUMBERS STILL SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 45 KT AND
 QUIKSCAT DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT THESE WINDS ARE MOSTLY
 CONFINED TO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. IGNACIO IS ALREADY OVER COOLER
 WATERS AND WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SOON AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD
 BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN TWO DAYS OR EARLIER.
 
 THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST
 AT 12 KNOTS. IGNACIO IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE
 NORTHWEST. THIS IS ALSO THE SOLUTION PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS AND
 SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE SHALLOW
 REMNANT LOW WILL LIKELY MOVE MORE TO THE WEST STEERED BY THE
 LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      26/0900Z 21.1N 122.5W    45 KT
  12HR VT     26/1800Z 22.2N 124.1W    40 KT
  24HR VT     27/0600Z 24.0N 126.0W    35 KT
  36HR VT     27/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W    30 KT
  48HR VT     28/0600Z 27.0N 130.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     29/0600Z 27.5N 132.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 

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