501 
 WTNT43 KNHC 301427
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2004
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED TO
 THE NORTH OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS POORLY
 ORGANIZED.  HOWEVER A 0947Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED 45 TO 50 KT WINDS
 SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10.  THIS MOTION PUTS THE CENTER
 OVER COLD SSTS BY 12 HOURS AND NO TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.
 HOWEVER MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A FARILY STRONG EXTRATROPICAL
 CIRCULATION.  THE FORECAST WIND SPEED IS KEPT AT 35 KT JUST IN CASE
 THE GUIDANCE IS CORRECT.
  
 THE GFS KEEPS HERMINE AS A SEPARATE VORTICITY CENTER UNTIL 24 HOURS
 AFTER WHICH IT MERGES WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES WHICH
 PROBABLY INCLUDES THE REMAINS OF GASTON.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFS 850 MB VORTICITY CENTER.
  
 FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      30/1500Z 36.7N  71.5W    45 KT
  12HR VT     31/0000Z 40.0N  71.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  24HR VT     31/1200Z 44.0N  67.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     01/0000Z 48.0N  61.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     01/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
  
  
 $$
 
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