614 
 WTNT43 KNHC 292057
 TCDAT3
 TROPICAL STORM HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 5 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004
  
 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
 NORTH ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A SURFACE CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH DEEP
 CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL STORM HERMINE...THE EIGHT
 TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS
 LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION DUE TO SOME SHEAR.
 HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT SOME ADDITIONAL
 STRENGTHENING.
  
 THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 9 KNOTS AROUND THE
 PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS
 EXPECTED AND...BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE MERGED WITH THE
 MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON.
  
 THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII KEEPS THE CYCLONE AWAY FROM THE
 U.S EAST COAST. THEREFORE...NO TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNING ARE
 NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/2100Z 32.4N  71.0W    35 KT
  12HR VT     30/0600Z 33.5N  72.0W    40 KT
  24HR VT     30/1800Z 35.6N  73.1W    45 KT
  36HR VT     31/0600Z 39.0N  72.0W    45 KT
  48HR VT     31/1800Z...EXTRATROPICAL
  
  
 $$
 
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