004 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 020845
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 02 2007
  
 AN EARLIER SSMI MICROWAVE OVERPASS AND ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
 INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY SMALL IN
 COVERAGE...CONTINUES TO INTERMITTENTLY BURST OVER THE CIRCULATION
 CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 25 KT AND
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT.  COOLER WATERS SHOULD INDUCE
 A WEAKENING CAUSING GIL TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW DURING THE NEXT 12
 HOURS...FINALLY DISSIPATING IN 3 DAYS.
  
 THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS A PERSISTENT 285/8...AND THE CYCLONE
 SHOULD CONTINUE IN THIS GENERAL MOTION WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES
 UNTIL DISSIPATION.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      02/0900Z 19.5N 123.2W    25 KT
  12HR VT     02/1800Z 19.8N 124.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  24HR VT     03/0600Z 20.2N 126.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 127.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     04/0600Z 20.5N 129.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     05/0600Z 20.5N 133.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     06/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/KNABB
  
 

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