874 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 290857
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 AM PDT SUN AUG 29 2004
  
 GEORGETTE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE INTERMITTANT BURSTS OF CONVECTION 
 NEAR THE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE
 PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS THE STORM HAS ENDURED EASTERLY SHEAR. CURRENT
 INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL
 INTENSITY IS 45 KT.
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS 275/11. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO SINCE THE STORM IS LOCATED ON
 THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THEREAFTER...GEORGETTE
 WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO THE POINT THAT IT WILL BE STEERED TO THE WEST
 BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
 GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS AND CONY ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND
 MOVES GEORGETTE DUE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS. THE UKMET...NHC91 AND THE
 BAM MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WHICH
 SEEMS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE DEGREE OF WEAKENING EXPECTED.
  
 GEORGETTE WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 6 TO 12
 HOURS WITH SLOW WEAKENING EXPECTED IN THE 24-36 HOUR TIMEFRAME.
 AFTER 36 HOURS THE SYSTEM CROSSES 24C WATERS AND THE WEAKENING
 SHOULD BE MORE PRONOUNCED WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY 72
 HOURS...AND A REMNANT LOW ON DAYS 4 AND 5. 
 
 FORECASTER JARVINEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/0900Z 19.2N 120.4W    45 KT
  12HR VT     29/1800Z 19.5N 121.8W    45 KT
  24HR VT     30/0600Z 19.9N 123.4W    45 KT
  36HR VT     30/1800Z 20.1N 125.1W    40 KT
  48HR VT     31/0600Z 20.3N 127.2W    30 KT
  72HR VT     01/0600Z 20.6N 131.7W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     02/0600Z 20.8N 136.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     03/0600Z 21.0N 141.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$
 
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