395 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 281447
 TCDEP5
 TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT SAT AUG 28 2004
  
 THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF GEORGETTE LOOKED QUITE RAGGED FOR MUCH
 OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT DEEP THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SINCE
 REDEVELOPED OVER AND TO THE WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WITH
 CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS -85C. THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME
 EASTERLY SHEAR WITH A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER ON THE
 EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION. CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE A CONSENSUS 3.0 AND GIVEN
 THE RECENT FLARE UP OF CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
 AT 45 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 280/10. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
 NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE ALTHOUGH MOST
 OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE DOES SLOW GEORGETTE DOWN FOR THE FIRST 48
 HOURS AND JOG IT A LITTLE TO THE NORTH. THIS IS POSSIBLY IN
 RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 135W...WHICH SHOULD LIFT TO
 THE NORTHEAST WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE GUIDANCE IS CLUSTERED TIGHTLY
 DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HOURS BUT DIVERGES THEREAFTER PRIMARILY DUE
 TO DISAGREEMENTS IN FORECAST INTENSITY. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE
 FASTEST AND FARTHER TO THE SOUTH THAN THE OTHER MODELS...AND THIS
 SEEMS MOST REASONABLE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE CIRCULATION BECOMES
 SHALLOWER OVER THE COLDER WATERS TO THE WEST AND IS STEERED BY
 STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGING ALONG 30N/31N.
 
 THE FORECAST INTENSITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
 AND IS MOSTLY IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. GEORGETTE WILL CROSS
 OVER THE 26C ISOTHERM AFTER ABOUT 24 HOURS...AT WHICH POINT THE
 WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE SYSTEM BECOMING A
 REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS. SINCE THE GFDL KEEPS THE STORM ON A MORE
 SOUTHERN TRACK...IT BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 60 KT IN 36 HOURS
 BUT THIS APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN PROXIMITY OF THE COLDER SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURES.
  
 FORECASTER BERG/BEVEN
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/1500Z 18.8N 117.1W    45 KT
  12HR VT     29/0000Z 18.9N 118.6W    45 KT
  24HR VT     29/1200Z 19.1N 120.4W    45 KT
  36HR VT     30/0000Z 19.4N 122.0W    40 KT
  48HR VT     30/1200Z 19.8N 124.0W    35 KT
  72HR VT     31/1200Z 20.0N 128.0W    30 KT
  96HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N 132.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 120HR VT     02/1200Z 20.0N 136.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$
 
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