217 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 292030
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 2 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004
  
 THE EYE IS NOT LONGER CLEARLY DEPICTED ON VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATING
 THAT DARBY HAS BEEN WEAKENING. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT WINDS
 HAVE DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS. COOL WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD
 AFFECT THE HURRICANE CAUSING SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING.  THIS IS
 SUPPORTED BY BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
  
 DARBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE
 PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IS
 GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
 DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...SOME MODELS CARRY DARBY
 WESTWARD AND OTHERS NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
 A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST WHEN
 DARBY BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE IN 72 HOURS.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/2100Z 17.9N 128.8W    90 KT
  12HR VT     30/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W    85 KT
  24HR VT     30/1800Z 19.0N 133.0W    60 KT
  36HR VT     31/0600Z 19.5N 135.3W    50 KT
  48HR VT     31/1800Z 20.0N 137.5W    40 KT
  72HR VT     01/1800Z 20.0N 142.5W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     02/1800Z 20.5N 147.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 153.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
  
 $$
 

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