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217
WTPZ45 KNHC 292030
TCDEP5
HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUL 29 2004
THE EYE IS NOT LONGER CLEARLY DEPICTED ON VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATING
THAT DARBY HAS BEEN WEAKENING. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT WINDS
HAVE DECREASED TO 90 KNOTS. COOL WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD
AFFECT THE HURRICANE CAUSING SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
DARBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IS
GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...SOME MODELS CARRY DARBY
WESTWARD AND OTHERS NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST WHEN
DARBY BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE IN 72 HOURS.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 29/2100Z 17.9N 128.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 18.5N 130.5W 85 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 19.0N 133.0W 60 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 19.5N 135.3W 50 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 20.0N 137.5W 40 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 20.0N 142.5W 30 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 02/1800Z 20.5N 147.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 153.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
$$
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This page was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
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