580 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 291429
 TCDEP5
 HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 8 AM PDT THU JUL 29 2004
  
 AFTER A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION...DARBY'S CIRCULATION HAS BEGUN TO
 MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THE EYE IS BECOMING LESS
 DISTINCT AND THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION IS GRADUALLY WEAKENING.
 DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 100 KNOTS.
 COOL WATERS AND STRONG SHEAR SHOULD AFFECT THE HURRICANE
 SIGNIFICANTLY AND WEAKENING AT A FASTER PACE SHOULD BEGIN SOON.
 THIS IS SUPPORTED BY BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
  
 DARBY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ABOUT 12 KNOTS AROUND THE
 PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IS
 GUIDANCE WHICH CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
 DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...SOME MODELS CARRY DARBY
 WESTWARD AND OTHERS NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
 A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST WHEN
 DARBY BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE IN 72 HOURS.
  
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      29/1500Z 17.6N 128.0W   100 KT
  12HR VT     30/0000Z 18.2N 129.8W    85 KT
  24HR VT     30/1200Z 18.8N 132.2W    70 KT
  36HR VT     31/0000Z 19.5N 134.5W    50 KT
  48HR VT     31/1200Z 19.5N 137.0W    40 KT
  72HR VT     01/1200Z 20.0N 142.0W    30 KT...DISSIPATING
  96HR VT     02/1200Z 20.5N 146.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     03/1200Z 20.5N 152.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 
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