032 
 WTNT44 KNHC 170247
 TCDAT4
 TROPICAL STORM CLAUDETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL042009
 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2009
  
 CLAUDETTE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER-ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
 HOURS.  DOPPLER RADAR VELOCITIES STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF
 40-45 KT SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KT.   MODERATE
 WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS BEEN IMPINGING ON THE STORM...AND
 APPARENTLY PREVENTING THE CYCLONE FROM STRENGTHENING.
 HOWEVER...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM
 CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY OVER THE
 EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...AND IT IS IN THESE
 CONVECTIVE REGIONS WHERE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY
 OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE.  WITH LANDFALL NOW IMMINENT...THE WINDOW
 OF OPPORTUNITY FOR CLAUDETTE TO STRENGTHEN IS QUICKLY CLOSING.
  
 THE CENTER WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE WEST A FEW HOURS AGO BUT NOW IS
 MORE OR LESS BACK ON TRACK...ALBEIT AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD
 SPEED.  INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 315/10.  THE TRACK FORECAST AND
 REASONING ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
 CONTINUE TO MOVE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH
 PRESSURE AREA UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
 STATES.  THIS OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
 PREVIOUS ONE.
  
 THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
 INLAND FLOODING.  PLEASE REFER TO STATEMENTS...WATCHES...AND
 WARNINGS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      17/0300Z 30.2N  86.1W    45 KT
  12HR VT     17/1200Z 31.3N  87.2W    40 KT...INLAND
  24HR VT     18/0000Z 33.0N  88.3W    30 KT...INLAND
  36HR VT     18/1200Z 35.0N  88.9W    20 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
  48HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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