081 
 WTNT42 KNHC 190830
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  65
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
 500 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2008
  
 BERTHA HAS REMARKABLY MAINTAINED ITS TROPICAL STRUCTURE WITH AN EYE
 SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65
 KNOTS BUT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER...AS SUGGESTED BY DVORAK
 ESTIMATES FROM TAFB.  I AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE HOW MUCH LONGER
 BERTHA WILL KEEP ITS STRUCTURE BUT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER COOL
 WATERS AND WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE FLOW. CONSQUENTLY...BERTHA HAS
 TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL...FAMOUS LAST WORDS.   
 
 BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 030 DEGREES AT 22 KNOTS.
 THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK WITH A GRADUAL
 INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UNTIL BECOME ABSORBED IN A COUPLE OF
 DAYS.  TRACK GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY SHOWS THE HURRICANE ACCELERATING
 TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.   
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      19/0900Z 41.2N  47.4W    65 KT
  12HR VT     19/1800Z 43.8N  44.8W    60 KT
  24HR VT     20/0600Z 48.0N  40.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  36HR VT     20/1800Z 53.0N  35.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  48HR VT     21/0600Z 58.0N  28.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     22/0600Z...EXTRATROPICAL
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 

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