478 
 WTNT42 KNHC 180834
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  61
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
 500 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2008
  
 TENACIOUS BERTHA CONTINUES TO HAVE A REMARKABLE WELL-DEFINED CLOUD
 PATTERN WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH...AN EYE-LIKE
 FEATURE AND LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50
 KNOTS...BUT IT COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. AS BERTHA MOVES OVER
 COOLER WATERS IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48
 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BERTHA SHOULD BE FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE HIGH
 LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
 CYCLONE. 
 
 BERTHA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 045 DEGREES AT 15 KNOTS. 
 IT APPEARS THAT FINALLY BERTHA WILL ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST
 AHEAD OF A SHARP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS INDICATED BY GUIDANCE.  SOME
 MODELS MAKE BERTHA EXTRATROPICAL SOONER THAN OTHERS BUT THEY ALL
 LEAD TO THE SAME ENDING.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      18/0900Z 34.8N  53.7W    50 KT
  12HR VT     18/1800Z 36.6N  51.6W    50 KT
  24HR VT     19/0600Z 39.0N  48.8W    45 KT
  36HR VT     19/1800Z 42.5N  45.0W    45 KT
  48HR VT     20/0600Z 46.0N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  72HR VT     21/0600Z 54.0N  31.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
  96HR VT     22/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
  
 $$
 
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for BERTHA

Back to main Tropical Weather page







This page was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman