400 
 WTNT42 KNHC 121433
 TCDAT2
 HURRICANE BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2008
  
 AFTER A WEEK OR SO...I AM RUNNING OUT OF THINGS TO SAY ABOUT BERTHA.
 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE YESTERDAY AND CONSISTS
 OF A LARGE DIFFUSE EYE SURROUNDED BY MODERATE CONVECTION. DVORAK
 T-NUMBERS HAVE BEEN DECREASING AND GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE
 STRUCTURE THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KNOTS. AN AIR FORCE
 RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL CHECK BERTHA LATER TODAY.  NO
 SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
 SO. DUE TO ITS SLOW MOTION...BERTHA IS PROBABLY CAUSING UPWELLING
 AND THIS COULD RESULT IN A FASTER WEAKENING TREND.
  
 BERTHA HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...PERHAPS TO THE
 NORTH ABOUT 2 KNOTS. THE CURRENT PATTERN OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS
 WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT STILL FAVORS A
 GENERAL SLOW NORTHERLY TRACK DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
 THEREAFTER...AS BERTHA GETS CLOSER TO THE MID-LATITUDE
 WESTERLIES...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
 THE NORTH-NORTHEAST BUT MAINTAINING ITS SLOW PACE. DYNAMICAL TRACK
 GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS SCENARIO AND HAS NOW BEGUN TO TURN BERTHA
 TOWARD THE EAST BEYOND DAY FOUR.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/1500Z 29.9N  62.6W    75 KT
  12HR VT     13/0000Z 30.2N  62.7W    75 KT
  24HR VT     13/1200Z 30.7N  62.7W    75 KT
  36HR VT     14/0000Z 31.3N  62.7W    70 KT
  48HR VT     14/1200Z 32.0N  62.7W    65 KT
  72HR VT     15/1200Z 34.0N  62.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     16/1200Z 35.5N  60.5W    50 KT
 120HR VT     17/1200Z 36.0N  58.0W    50 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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