336 
 WTNT42 KNHC 041449
 TCDAT2
 TROPICAL STORM BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL022008
 1100 AM EDT FRI JUL 04 2008
  
 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF BERTHA CONSISTS OF A COUPLE OF CLUSTERS OF
 CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE CENTER EMBEDDED WITHIN A
 LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS.  A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS
 THAT WAS RECEIVED JUST AFTER THE ISSUANCE OF THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY...SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE AROUND 45 KT.  THE
 STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGE LITTLE SINCE THAT TIME AND THE
 LATEST DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT A 45 KT
 INITIAL INTENSITY.
 
 BERTHA WILL BE PASSING OVER SLIGHTLY COOLER WATERS DURING THE NEXT
 24 HOURS...SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM.
 BETWEEN 24 AND 72 HOURS...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME
 CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING AS SSTS INCREASE AND THE SHEAR 
 REMAINS LOW.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR COULD INCREASE
 THEREAFTER...SO THE NEW FORECAST KEEPS THE INTENSITY JUST SHY OF
 HURRICANE STRENGTH.  HOWEVER....IT IS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THE
 SHIPS...LGEM...AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST BERTHA TO BECOME A
 HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS.
 
 BERTHA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A LITTLE FASTER
 PACE...290/14.  THE STORM SHOULD REMAIN ON THIS GENERAL HEADING
 DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS IT IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC.  THE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
 SHIFT WESTWARD...BUT THERE REMAINS TWO DISTINCT ENVELOPES...ONE
 THAT CONSISTS OF THE HWRF AND GFDL THAT TURN THE CYCLONE
 NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND DAY 3....AND THE OTHER WHICH KEEPS BERTHA
 ON A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS
 BEEN ADJUSTED WESTWARD TO REFLECT THE SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      04/1500Z 14.9N  29.7W    45 KT
  12HR VT     05/0000Z 15.7N  32.1W    45 KT
  24HR VT     05/1200Z 16.5N  35.6W    45 KT
  36HR VT     06/0000Z 17.2N  39.2W    50 KT
  48HR VT     06/1200Z 17.9N  42.9W    55 KT
  72HR VT     07/1200Z 19.5N  49.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  54.5W    60 KT
 120HR VT     09/1200Z 24.0N  59.0W    60 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
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