811 
 WTPZ41 KNHC 280258
 TCDEP1
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007
 800 PM PDT SUN MAY 27 2007
  
 DEEP CONVECTION STARTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
 CENTER AT ABOUT 23Z...AND IT HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT SINCE THEN.
 CLOUD TOPS HAVE RECENTLY BECOME AS COLD AS -80C... FAVORING THE
 WESTERN SEMICIRCLE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY
 WIND SHEAR.  THE CONVECTIVE COMEBACK CERTAINLY MEANS THIS SYSTEM IS
 STILL A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...BUT SINCE IT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING
 MIGHTILY TODAY...IT IS HARD TO HAVE CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL
 STRENGTHEN MUCH IN THE LONG TERM.  THE THERMODYNAMIC PREDICTORS IN
 THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUE TO BE NEGATIVE CONTRIBUTORS TO THE
 FORECAST INTENSITY CHANGE.  MEANWHILE THE SSTS AND WIND SHEAR WILL
 PROBABLY NOT CHANGE THAT MUCH ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.  THE NEW
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH
 JUST A SLIGHTLY LESSER INTENSITY BEYOND 36 HOURS...WHICH IS IN
 BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND LGE SOLUTIONS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS SLOW WESTWARD OR 270/4...ALTHOUGH A
 LITTLE FASTER THAN BEFORE...PERHAPS BECAUSE THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
 CAUSING A RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES.  A MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE... HOWEVER...IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 15N/125W AND WILL
 PROBABLY PREVENT THE CYCLONE FROM MOVING TOO MUCH TOWARD THE WEST
 FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY
 FOLLOWS THE SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS OF A SLIGHTLY
 SOUTH OF WEST MOTION DURING THAT TIME.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
 PERIOD...A WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO RESUME WHEN THE CYCLONE
 FINDS ITSELF SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      28/0300Z 13.0N 111.7W    25 KT
  12HR VT     28/1200Z 12.9N 112.4W    30 KT
  24HR VT     29/0000Z 12.8N 113.1W    30 KT
  36HR VT     29/1200Z 12.7N 113.7W    35 KT
  48HR VT     30/0000Z 12.6N 114.3W    35 KT
  72HR VT     31/0000Z 12.5N 115.5W    35 KT
  96HR VT     01/0000Z 12.5N 116.2W    35 KT
 120HR VT     02/0000Z 12.5N 117.0W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
 

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