583 
 WTPZ45 KNHC 012037
 TCDEP5
 
 Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number  27
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202018
 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018
 
 Rosa has no deep convection near its center, but there are plenty
 of rain-bearing clouds over areas well to the north and northeast of
 the center, including the northern Baja California peninsula,
 Sonora, and portions of the southwestern United States.  The
 scatterometer recently missed Rosa, but assuming a steady spin down
 since the last overpass 12 hours ago, the advisory intensity is set
 at 35 kt. Continued weakening, due to very strong vertical shear,
 cool waters, and then interaction with land, should reduce Rosa to a
 tropical depression very soon.  Rosa is likely to degenerate into a
 remnant low over the southwestern United States tomorrow.
 
 The cyclone continues moving north-northeastward, or 030/9 kt.  The
 track forecast philosophy is the same as in the previous advisory
 package.  The flow ahead of a broad mid-level trough should advect
 Rosa, or its remnant, north-northeastward until dissipation.  The
 official track forecast continues to follow the multi-model
 consensus closely.
 
 
 Key Messages:
 
 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy
 rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S.
 Desert Southwest.  These rains are expected to produce
 life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and
 landslides in mountainous terrain.  For more information about
 potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the
 Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office.
 
 2. Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the
 central and northern Baja California peninsula,  especially over
 higher elevations.  These conditions could spread into the northern
 Gulf of California later tonight. Interests in those locations
 should monitor the progress of Rosa.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  01/2100Z 28.1N 116.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  02/0600Z 29.9N 115.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  24H  02/1800Z 32.7N 114.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  36H  03/0600Z 35.5N 113.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  48H  03/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch
 
 

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