735 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 060848
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  23
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 06 2018
 
 The remaining deep convection associated with Fabio has dissipated
 overnight and the system now consists of a swirl of low- to
 mid-level clouds.  Although the convection has waned, a 0518 UTC
 ASCAT pass indicated a large area of 30-35 kt winds primarily over
 the northern portion of the circulation so the initial intensity
 remains 35 kt for this advisory.  The cyclone will be moving over
 SSTs below 20C very soon and into a more stable environment.  As a
 result, organized deep convection is not likely to redevelop and
 the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low later today and
 continue to gradually spin down over the next 2-3 days. The global
 models indicate that the remnant low will degenerate into a trough
 of low pressure in a little more than 3 days, and this is reflected
 in the NHC forecast.
 
 The ASCAT pass suggests that Fabio has moved more westward than
 west-northwestward overnight, but a general west-northwestward
 motion is anticipated over the next day or so.  As the remnant low
 weakens it should turn more toward the west before dissipation
 occurs. The new NHC forecast is slightly south of the previous
 official forecast, and is close to the various consensus aids.
 
 Although Fabio is weakening, swells generated by the cyclone will
 affect the coasts of southern California and the Baja California
 Peninsula for the next day or so.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/0900Z 21.5N 129.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  06/1800Z 22.3N 130.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  07/0600Z 23.0N 133.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  07/1800Z 23.6N 135.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  08/0600Z 24.0N 137.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  09/0600Z 25.0N 140.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  10/0600Z...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 

This page was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman