012 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 060234
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  22
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 800 PM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018
 
 The satellite appearance of Fabio has continued to degrade, as the
 system is now comprised mostly of a swirl of low- to mid-level
 clouds with disorganized convection in the southeastern quadrant.
 The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based on a blend of
 various satellite intensity estimates.  The center of Fabio is
 approaching sea-surface temperatures near 20C and this should cause
 continued weakening, with the convection completely dissipating in
 the next 12-24 h if not sooner.  The resulting remnant low is
 expected to persist through 96 h before degenerating into a trough.
 
 The initial motion is 295/13.  Fabio or its remnants should move
 generally west-northwestward during the next 36-48 h toward a
 weakness in the subtropical ridge.  After that time, the system
 should turn more westward as the low-level tradewind flow becomes
 the dominant steering mechanism.  The new forecast track is an
 update of the previous track that lies close to the consensus
 models.
 
 Although Fabio is weakening, swells generated by the cyclone will
 affect the coasts of southern California and the Baja California
 Peninsula for the next day or so.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  06/0300Z 21.2N 128.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  06/1200Z 22.1N 129.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  07/0000Z 23.1N 132.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  07/1200Z 23.8N 134.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  08/0000Z 24.3N 136.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  09/0000Z 25.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  10/0000Z 26.0N 143.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Beven
 
 

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