663 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 050832
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number  19
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 05 2018
 
 Fabio is moving over 23 degree C waters. Consequently, the cloud
 pattern has deteriorated significantly during the past several
 hours. The convection has decreased in both intensity and in area
 coverage, and there is no longer an inner core. Dvorak estimates
 from all agencies support to lower the intensity to 60 kt at this
 time. Since Fabio is heading toward much colder waters, rapid
 weakening is anticipated, and the cyclone is forecast to become a
 remnant low in about 36 hours, if not sooner.
 
 Fabio is moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 14 kt
 steered by the persistent subtropical ridge to the north. As a
 shallow cyclone, Fabio could turn more to the west-northwest
 steered by the low-level flow.  The NHC forecast continues to be
 in the middle of the tight guidance envelope bounded by the
 multi-model consensus, and is very close to the HFIP Corrected
 Consensus HCCA.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  05/0900Z 19.3N 123.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  05/1800Z 20.4N 125.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  24H  06/0600Z 21.8N 128.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
  36H  06/1800Z 23.0N 130.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
  48H  07/0600Z 24.0N 132.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  72H  08/0600Z 25.5N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  09/0600Z 26.0N 140.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 

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