|
031 WTPZ42 KNHC 041433 TCDEP2 Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072018 800 AM PDT Wed Jul 04 2018 Fabio's eye has shrunk and become somewhat distorted while still being surrounded by very cold cloud tops. Mainly because of the degradation of the eye, Dvorak estimates have decreased slightly, and the initial intensity is set at 85 kt based on a blend of the numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. The northwest half of Fabio's large circulation is now over sub-26C waters, and colder waters and a stable environment will likely induce a fast weakening rate over the next two days. Fabio is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm in about 24 hours and then degenerate into a remnant low by day 3. The updated NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) guidance, and it is a little lower than the previous forecast during the first 48 hours. The initial motion is west-northwestward, or 290/13 kt. Fabio will be reaching the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge soon, allowing the cyclone to turn slightly northwestward through 48 hours. Once it becomes a remnant low, Fabio should then turn back toward the west-northwest and slow down within the lower-level trade wind flow. There is still not much spread in the track guidance, and much like the intensity forecast, the official track forecast is closest to the HCCA and FSSE guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/1500Z 17.2N 120.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 05/0000Z 18.2N 122.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 05/1200Z 19.6N 124.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 06/0000Z 21.0N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 22.5N 129.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 24.7N 133.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1200Z 26.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1200Z 28.0N 139.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster BergReturn to the Tropical Systems Page for FABIO Back to main Tropical Weather page
This page was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC Send comments to: Ryan Lyman |
