881 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 040831
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  15
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 200 AM PDT Wed Jul 04 2018
 
 The eye continues to be distinct, but the convective tops are
 warming and the area coverage is shrinking.  An average of the TAFB
 and SAB Dvorak T-numbers supports an initial intensity of 90 kt.
 Fabio's core is still moving over 26 or 27 degree C waters, but the
 northern circulation is already encountering much cooler waters. On
 this basis, NHC forecast weakening, and Fabio is anticipated to be a
 remnant low in 3 days when its core moves over 20 degree C waters.
 
 There has been no change in track, and Fabio continues to move
 west-northwestward at 13 kt.  The hurricane is expected to remain
 steered by flow around the southwestern periphery of a persistent
 mid-level ridge.  By the end of the forecast period, when Fabio is
 anticipated to be a weak and shallow system, the cyclone is
 predicted to slow down as it becomes more influenced by the
 low-level flow.  The NHC forecast continue to be near the middle of
 the guidance envelope and very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
 HCCA.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0900Z 17.0N 119.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  04/1800Z 18.0N 121.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  24H  05/0600Z 19.5N 123.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  05/1800Z 21.0N 126.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  06/0600Z 22.5N 128.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  72H  07/0600Z 25.0N 132.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  08/0600Z 27.0N 136.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  09/0600Z 29.0N 138.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 

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