254 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 040233
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  14
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 800 PM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018
 
 The intensification trend of Fabio appears to have ended.  Several
 hours ago, satellite images showed a ring of cold cloud tops
 surrounding a distinct eye.  However, more recent data indicate that
 the structure of Fabio has deteriorated with a pronounced dry slot
 evident on the east side of the circulation.  Blending the latest
 intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of
 Wisconsin support holding the initial wind speed at 95 kt, but this
 could be a little generous.
 
 Fabio is currently over marginally warm 27 degree C waters, but it
 is headed for much cooler waters during the next several days. These
 unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more stable airmass
 and an increase in southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening
 through the forecast period.  Fabio is forecast to weaken below
 hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours, and it is predicted to become
 a remnant low by 96 hours.  The intensity models are in fair
 agreement, and the NHC forecast lies between the HCCA and ICON
 consensus aids.
 
 The hurricane continues to move west-northwestward at 13 kt.  There
 is no change to the track forecast reasoning.  Fabio is expected to
 continue west-northwestward to northwestward at about the same
 forward speed during the next few days while it moves on the
 southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge.  By the end of the
 forecast period, when Fabio is a weak and shallow system, the
 cyclone is predicted to slow down as it becomes more influenced by
 the low-level flow.  The track models remain in good agreement, and
 the NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  04/0300Z 16.5N 117.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  04/1200Z 17.4N 119.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
  24H  05/0000Z 18.9N 122.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  05/1200Z 20.4N 124.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  06/0000Z 22.0N 127.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  07/0000Z 24.8N 131.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  08/0000Z 26.7N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  09/0000Z 28.1N 138.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 

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