657 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 032031
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  13
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 200 PM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018
 
 The overall satellite presentation of Fabio has continued to
 improve today.  The eye has become better defined and warmed while
 the ring of cold clouds tops has wrapped more around the center
 since the previous advisory.  Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB
 and SAB are consensus T5.0s while objective Dvorak T-numbers from
 UW-CIMSS are T5.9.  Bases on these data, the initial intensity has
 been increased to 95 kt.  Fabio has a little time left over warm
 waters in which to reach major hurricane status, but by early
 Wednesday the hurricane will be moving over cooler SSTs and into
 less favorable thermodynamic conditions, which should cause
 the hurricane to begin to weaken.  A more rapid rate of filling is
 forecast to begin by late Wednesday and Fabio is forecast to weaken
 to a tropical storm within 48 h, and degenerate into a remnant low
 by day 4.  The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
 IVCN and HCCA consensus aids.
 
 Fabio is moving west-northwestward around 13 kt.  There has been no
 change to the track forecast reasoning since the previous advisory.
 The hurricane should move west-northwestward to northwestward
 around the southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge that extends
 westward from northern Mexico.  The track guidance is in excellent
 agreement and the new NHC foreast is essentially an update of the
 previous advisory.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/2100Z 15.8N 116.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
  12H  04/0600Z 16.5N 118.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  04/1800Z 17.7N 120.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
  36H  05/0600Z 19.3N 123.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
  48H  05/1800Z 20.9N 125.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  06/1800Z 23.8N 130.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  07/1800Z 26.0N 134.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  08/1800Z 27.5N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 

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