738 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 031443
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  12
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 800 AM PDT Tue Jul 03 2018
 
 The structure of Fabio has improved since the issuance of the
 previous advisory.  Just prior to 1200 UTC a ring of -70C and colder
 cloud tops wrapped entirely around the warming eye, and an AMSR-2
 pass around 0900 UTC indicated that the inner-core convection had
 continued to contract and become more symmetric.  Since that time,
 the eyewall structure has become less clear on IR imagery, and its
 unclear if this is a temporary fluctuation or an indication that
 Fabio is already nearing its peak.  The initial intensity has been
 raised to 90 kt based on a blend of objective and subjective Dvorak
 estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT.
 
 Fabio is beginning to run out of time for further intensification.
 The hurricane should remain within a warm SST, low wind shear
 environment for the next 12 to 24 hours.  At least some modest
 strengthening seems possible over that time, and Fabio is still
 forecast to become a major hurricane later today, however it is
 worth noting that all of the intensity guidance indicates that Fabio
 may already be near its peak intensity.  Beginning tomorrow, the
 hurricane will be moving over much cooler SSTs and into a more
 stable thermodynamic environment.  Steady to rapid weakening is
 inevitable, eventually causing Fabio to degenerate into a remnant
 low by the end of the forecast period.  The new NHC intensity
 forecast is at the high end of the intensity guidance at 12 h, but
 very close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids after that.
 
 The hurricane has continued to move toward the west-northwest at
 around 13 kt.  All of the dynamical models agree that Fabio will
 continue moving west-northwestward to northwestward along the
 southern periphery of a mid-level ridge to the north for the next
 several days.  Very little change has been made to the official
 track forecast which remains near the various multi-model consensus
 track aids, near the middle of the tightly-clustered guidance
 envelope through day 5.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/1500Z 15.2N 115.6W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  04/0000Z 16.1N 117.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
  24H  04/1200Z 17.2N 120.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  36H  05/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  05/1200Z 20.2N 124.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  06/1200Z 23.1N 129.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
  96H  07/1200Z 25.5N 133.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 120H  08/1200Z 27.0N 137.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Zelinsky
 
 

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