571 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 030234
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number  10
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 900 PM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018
 
 Hurricane Fabio is on a strengthening trend.  Recent microwave and
 infrared satellite images show that the inner core of the hurricane
 has become better established, but the eye has not yet cleared out
 in geostationary satellite images.  The banding features beyond the
 inner core are also better organized and more symmetric around the
 center.  The initial intensity is increased slightly to 80 kt, which
 is at the high end of the Dvorak estimates.
 
 Additional strengthening is expected overnight and on Tuesday as
 Fabio moves into a region of lower wind shear, and remains over warm
 waters and in a fairly moist air mass.  The NHC forecast shows a
 peak intensity of 100 kt at 24 hours, but given the expected
 favorable environmental conditions, Fabio could reach its highest
 intensity between the 12- and 24-h periods.  Thereafter, steady or
 even rapid weakening is forecast as the hurricane crosses the 26
 degree C isotherm and moves into a progressively drier airmass.  The
 NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the
 short term, but falls in line with the consensus aids at 48 hours
 and beyond.
 
 Fabio has jogged to the north and sped up some since the previous
 advisory, with the initial motion estimated to be 300/12 kt.  The
 track forecast is relatively straightforward.  Fabio is expected
 to move west-northwestward to northwestward at a slightly faster
 forward speed during the next several days while it moves around the
 southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge.  The forward speed
 should decrease by the end of the forecast period when the system is
 forecast to be shallower and becomes more influenced by easterly
 low-level flow.  The track models are in very good agreement, and
 the NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  03/0300Z 14.5N 113.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
  12H  03/1200Z 15.3N 114.8W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  04/0000Z 16.3N 117.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
  36H  04/1200Z 17.6N 120.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
  48H  05/0000Z 19.0N 122.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
  72H  06/0000Z 22.3N 127.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  96H  07/0000Z 25.4N 131.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 120H  08/0000Z 27.0N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi
 
 

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