304 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 021447
 TCDEP2
 
 Hurricane Fabio Discussion Number   8
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 900 AM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018
 
 Fabio's cloud pattern has improved somewhat since the previous
 advisory and early light visible satellite images show a
 well-defined curved band that wraps around the center.  Recent
 microwave images have shown some mixed signals regarding the
 structure of the inner core.  A 1028 UTC SSMI microwave overpass
 showed a well-defined low-level structure but the system was tilted
 with most of the deep convective banding located to the southeast of
 the center.  A subsequent 1147 UTC SSMIS pass showed similar
 structure, but a more recent 1321 UTC SSMIS overpass shows the
 formation of mid-level eye with a tighter inner-core. Subjective
 Dvorak intensity estimates were 55 to 65 kt from SAB and TAFB, and
 objective estimates from UW/CIMSS are 65 kt.  Based on the recent
 improvement in structure, the initial intensity has been raised to
 65 kt, making Fabio the third hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin
 during the 2018 hurricane season.
 
 Although Fabio has strengthened and become a hurricane, it has not
 strengthened as rapidly as expected.  This was likely due to the
 lack of inner core organization and the entrainment of some
 mid-level dry air as noted in previous discussions.  Now that the
 inner core structure has improved and the hurricane is forecast to
 remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment, a faster
 rate of intensification is anticipated during the next 24 to 36 h,
 and Fabio is still forecast to become a major hurricane on Tuesday.
 By early Wednesday, the hurricane is forecast to reach cooler waters
 and less favorable thermodynamic conditions which should result in
 rapid weakening.  Fabio is forecast to become a post-tropical
 remnant low by day 5.
 
 The cyclone has moved a little slower than expected over the past 24
 hours and the initial motion estimate is 285/8 kt.  Fabio is
 forecast to move west-northwestward at a faster forward speed
 to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from
 northern Mexico.  The track guidance is in very good agreement and
 the NHC forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/1500Z 12.8N 110.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  03/0000Z 13.7N 112.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  03/1200Z 14.7N 114.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  04/0000Z 15.8N 117.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  04/1200Z 17.0N 120.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
  72H  05/1200Z 19.5N 125.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  06/1200Z 22.6N 130.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  07/1200Z 25.0N 135.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
 
 

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