948 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 020845
 TCDEP2
 
 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   7
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 300 AM MDT Mon Jul 02 2018
 
 Fabio appears to have taken a brief pause in its intensification.
 A well-defined convective band wraps from the southeast around to
 the west of the low-level center, but 89-GHz microwave imagery and
 scatterometer data indicate that the cyclone has not yet developed
 a tight inner core.  In fact, the 05Z ASCAT data still showed a
 radius of maximum winds around 40 n mi, and the wind field is
 quite asymmetric with not many tropical-storm-force wind vectors in
 the southwestern quadrant.  With Dvorak intensity estimates of
 T4.0/65 kt from TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB, as well as SATCON
 estimates of 55-60 kt, Fabio's initial intensity remains 60 kt for
 this advisory.
 
 Despite the broad wind field noted in scatterometer data, the last
 few infrared satellite images suggest that some tightening of the
 circulation may be starting.  Once a tight inner core develops,
 rapid intensification will likely occur with the cyclone located in
 an environment of low shear and over water with high oceanic heat
 content.  Fabio is expected to peak in intensity in 36-48 hours
 as a major hurricane, just before it reaches the 26C SST isotherm.
 After 48 hours, steady weakening is expected over cooler waters,
 with the cyclone likely becoming post tropical by day 5.  The
 updated NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and Florida
 State Superensemble solutions, and it not much different from the
 previous forecast.
 
 Scatterometer fixes suggest that Fabio has slowed down, at least
 temporarily, and turned west with an initial motion of 280/9 kt.  A
 weakness in the subtropical ridge over northwestern Mexico should
 allow the cyclone to turn back to the west-northwest soon, with
 acceleration expected through 72 hours as the ridge builds westward
 over the Pacific.  There is very little spread among the track
 guidance, and the official track forecast remains closest to HCCA
 and the TVCE multi-model consensus.  This new forecast is nearly on
 top of the previous one.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  02/0900Z 12.5N 110.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  02/1800Z 13.1N 111.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  24H  03/0600Z 14.0N 114.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
  36H  03/1800Z 15.0N 116.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
  48H  04/0600Z 16.1N 119.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
  72H  05/0600Z 18.6N 124.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
  96H  06/0600Z 21.5N 129.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  07/0600Z 24.5N 134.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
 $$
 Forecaster Berg
 
 

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