547 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 011438
 TCDEP2
  
 Tropical Storm Fabio Discussion Number   4
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072018
 900 AM MDT Sun Jul 01 2018
  
 The satellite presentation of Fabio has continued to improve this
 morning.  A large curved convective band wraps around the the
 western and southern portions of the circulation and a CDO feature
 appears to be developing. The initial intensity has been increased
 to 45 kt, which is based on consensus Dvorak T3.0s from TAFB and
 SAB.  Environmental conditions consisting of warm water, low
 vertical wind shear, and a moist low- to mid-level atmosphere should
 allow Fabio to strengthen quite quickly during the next couple of
 days.  In fact, the SHIPS, LGEM, FSSE, and HFIP Corrected Consensus
 models all predict rapid strengthening during the next 24 to 48
 hours.  The official forecast, while not quite as aggressive as the
 SHIPS/LGEM models, does predict rapid strengthening over the next
 couple of days and brings Fabio to a 110-kt major hurricane by 48
 hours.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is significantly higher
 than the previous advisory during the first 36 to 48 h, but shows a
 peak intensity only slightly above the previous forecast.  There is
 an usually large spread of peak wind speeds from the intensity aids
 between 48-72 hours, and the NHC forecast is slightly above the
 consensus, close to HCCA, but not as high as the FSSE and SHIPS
 models.  After 72, Fabio is forecast to move over cooler waters and
 into a more stable environment which is likely to result in rapid
 weakening.
  
 The initial motion remains 285/11.  Fabio is located to the south
 of a well-established mid-level ridge that extends westward from
 northern Mexico.  This ridge should keep the cyclone on a general
 west-northwestward heading through much of the forecast period.
 The track guidance is in good agreement and the NHC track is near
 the various consensus models.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  01/1500Z 12.0N 107.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  02/0000Z 12.4N 109.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  02/1200Z 12.9N 111.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  03/0000Z 13.6N 113.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
  48H  03/1200Z 14.4N 115.9W  110 KT 125 MPH
  72H  04/1200Z 16.3N 120.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
  96H  05/1200Z 18.7N 125.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 120H  06/1200Z 22.0N 131.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  
 $$
 Forecaster Brown
  
 

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